As we edge closer to the midpoint of the year, the world is still dealing with the ramifications of the U.S. and Israel bombing of Iran. A ceasefire is currently in effect, and now seems like a good time to discuss our outlook for the military campaign and the overall macro-economic picture. There is a good chance the President is likely to avoid further escalation and instead declare success in short order. A prolonged engagement would likely involve ground forces which would increase...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the potential closing of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered significant responses from governments worldwide, especially in the realm of oil subsidies and energy policy. When the conflict in Ukraine erupted, many Western governments responded by imposing sanctions on Russian oil exports, causing disruptions in global energy markets. To address the surge in fuel prices and shield their economies, several countries increased oil and gas subsidies,...

2025 was an experience, with events throughout the year making it memorable, to say the least. With that in mind, let’s look ahead into our foggy crystal ball to consider trends in 2026. Inflation Outlook A critical indicator will be inflation. Taming inflation has proven difficult for the Federal Reserve and multiple administrations: who knew that running large deficits could stimulate inflation? Our outlook is that inflation will likely drift slightly lower but remain above the Fed’s 2%...